A massive relief rally this week as tariff fears eased and risk appetite returned. The S&P 500 gained +3.1%, Nasdaq +3.8%, and small caps (IWM) +3.5%. VIX collapsed -20% to 19.23. The big story: oil crashed -10.2% on the week while crypto surged (BTC +6.2%, ETH +6.6%). Gold continued its march higher at +2.2%.
Key drivers: - Tariff de-escalation signals from Washington - PCE inflation data came in line (Feb: +0.4% m/m, +2.8% y/y) - Risk-on rotation: tech, small caps, and EM all outperformed - Oil gave back gains sharply — WTI from $110+ to $99.32 - VIX crushed from 24+ to 19.23
| Ticker | Weekly % | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| NBIS | +28.82% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| FNMA | +27.60% | TOP CBS |
| ALAB | +26.32% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| CRWV | +26.02% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| CIFR | +23.82% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| INTC | +22.84% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| WYFI | +20.53% | TOP CBS |
| CLS | +20.19% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| GLXY | +18.49% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| GDXU | +18.17% | GOLD |
| Ticker | Weekly % | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| NET | -21.15% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| NOW | -18.96% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| SNOW | -18.92% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| VG | -18.63% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| KOS | -17.10% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| AXON | -16.25% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| TEAM | -16.07% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| INTU | -15.65% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| PLTR | -13.43% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| CNR | -12.35% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| Ticker | YTD % | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| BWET | +769.94% | TOP CBS |
| SNDK | +209.46% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| KOS | +188.76% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| BW | +174.65% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| LITE | +132.39% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| TROX | +114.21% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| CIEN | +101.58% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| VG | +84.49% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| WDC | +83.06% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| TER | +77.37% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| Ticker | YTD % | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| TEAM | -63.07% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| EOSE | -56.67% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| VITL | -56.27% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| WGS | -54.94% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| KLAR | -54.36% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| FLUT | -53.09% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| CSIQ | -50.30% | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| BUR | -50.17% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| QBTS | -49.34% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| TTD | -46.68% | TOP QUARANTINE |
| Asset Class | Ticker | Weekly % |
|---|---|---|
| Ethereum | ETH-USD | +6.55% |
| Bitcoin | BTC-USD | +6.17% |
| Emerging Markets | IEMG | +5.86% |
| Silver | SLV | +4.52% |
| Europe | VGK | +3.92% |
| Nasdaq 100 | QQQ | +3.84% |
| US Small Cap | IWM | +3.54% |
| Global Equities | VT | +3.51% |
| US Large Cap | SPY | +3.12% |
| REITs | VNQ | +2.90% |
| Gold | GLD | +2.22% |
| Agg Bonds | AGG | +0.27% |
| Long Treasuries | TLT | -0.18% |
| Agriculture | DBA | -1.43% |
| Oil | USO | -10.16% |
| Asset Class | Ticker | YTD % |
|---|---|---|
| Oil | USO | +81.00% |
| Gold | GLD | +9.75% |
| Emerging Markets | IEMG | +7.61% |
| REITs | VNQ | +6.16% |
| US Small Cap | IWM | +5.22% |
| Agriculture | DBA | +5.20% |
| Silver | SLV | +5.06% |
| Europe | VGK | +3.44% |
| Global Equities | VT | +2.27% |
| Long Treasuries | TLT | +0.49% |
| Agg Bonds | AGG | +0.45% |
| Nasdaq 100 | QQQ | -0.21% |
| US Large Cap | SPY | -0.27% |
| Bitcoin | BTC-USD | -17.61% |
| Ethereum | ETH-USD | -25.15% |
Key takeaway: Oil is the YTD monster at +81%. Gold +9.75% continues to work. US large cap is essentially flat YTD. Crypto is deeply underwater.
| Country | ETF | Weekly % |
|---|---|---|
| South Korea | EWY | +10.16% |
| Taiwan | EWT | +7.93% |
| Turkey | TUR | +7.51% |
| Brazil | EWZ | +7.24% |
| Netherlands | EWN | +7.05% |
| Vietnam | VNM | +6.12% |
| Poland | EPOL | +6.07% |
| Chile | ECH | +5.99% |
| South Africa | EZA | +5.84% |
| Australia | EWA | +5.74% |
| Country | ETF | Weekly % |
|---|---|---|
| Colombia | GXG | +1.25% |
| Argentina | ARGT | +1.36% |
| Singapore | EWS | +1.83% |
| Canada | EWC | +2.29% |
| Switzerland | EWL | +2.33% |
| China | MCHI | +2.42% |
| Hong Kong | EWH | +2.62% |
| UK | EWU | +2.69% |
| Philippines | EPHE | +2.82% |
| Japan | EWJ | +2.99% |
Note: Every single country ETF was positive this week. South Korea led at +10.2% — Samsung/SK Hynix AI chip demand. EM broadly outperformed DM.
| Maturity | Yield | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Month | 3.59% | -3 bps |
| 5-Year | 3.94% | -4 bps |
| 10-Year | 4.32% | -2 bps |
| 30-Year | 4.91% | +2 bps |
Spreads: - 2s10s: ~+53 bps (normal, steepening) - 10s30s: +59 bps (steepening at the long end)
Commentary: Short end rallied slightly (rate cut expectations), long end held firm. The 30Y at 4.91% is near 5% — significant for Carlos’s long-duration treasury portfolio (49% in 2044-2054 bonds). Curve is normalizing, which is healthy. Fed funds rate still at 4.25-4.50%, market pricing 2-3 cuts by year-end.
| Ticker | Volume | Price | Day % | In Portfolio? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 159.4M | $188.63 | +2.34% | Yes (FTM) |
| PLTR | 115.9M | $128.06 | -0.33% | Yes (FTM) |
| INTC | 98.1M | $62.38 | +1.46% | Yes (FTM) |
| NIO | 58.5M | $6.50 | +5.86% | Yes (TQ) |
| AMZN | 56.5M | $238.38 | +1.31% | Yes (TQ) |
| TSLA | 50.3M | $348.95 | +0.77% | Yes (TQ) |
| SNAP | 48.0M | $4.82 | -4.27% | No |
| SMCI | 42.6M | $25.26 | +6.85% | Yes (TQ) |
| MARA | 36.1M | $9.54 | -2.00% | Yes (TQ) |
| AMD | 35.9M | $245.04 | +2.53% | Yes (FTM) |
| T | 32.0M | $26.46 | -0.21% | Yes (CBS) |
| SOFI | 31.3M | $16.22 | -0.49% | Yes (TQ) |
| AMC | 30.6M | $1.35 | 0.00% | Yes (TQ) |
| AAPL | 28.2M | $260.48 | +0.19% | Yes (TQ) |
| MSFT | 26.4M | $370.87 | -0.57% | Yes (TQ) |
| F | 23.6M | $12.13 | -1.70% | Yes (CBS) |
| RIVN | 19.1M | $15.43 | +0.39% | Yes (TQ) |
| GOOGL | 18.9M | $317.24 | -0.94% | Yes (TQ) |
| BAC | 16.8M | $52.54 | -0.49% | Yes (CBS) |
| RIOT | 13.8M | $16.60 | -0.90% | Yes (TQ) |
15 of 20 highest-volume names are in Carlos’s portfolios. Heavy overlap with FOLLOW THE MONEY and TOP QUARANTINE.
| Ticker | Weekly % | Company |
|---|---|---|
| IBN | +6.41% | ICICI Bank (India) |
| JD | +5.09% | JD.com (China) |
| NU | +4.91% | Nu Holdings (Brazil) |
| SE | +4.41% | Sea Limited (SE Asia) |
| HDB | +4.13% | HDFC Bank (India) |
| MELI | +3.72% | MercadoLibre (LatAm) |
| GRAB | +3.37% | Grab Holdings (SE Asia) |
| Ticker | YTD % | Company |
|---|---|---|
| JD | +1.46% | JD.com |
Note: Global stocks outside Carlos’s portfolios are mostly underwater YTD. His portfolio coverage is excellent — he already owns most of the winners.
Important: Macro Advantage issued a sell alert on OII (Oceaneering International) and CHRD (Chord Energy). Both are energy names. If Carlos holds either, consider trimming. This aligns with oil’s -10% weekly drop.
Weekly narrative: This was a classic “buy the dip” week. After the tariff shock drove markets down sharply in early April, the relief rally was swift and broad. Every country ETF was green. Every major asset class except oil and agriculture was positive. The VIX collapse from 24+ to 19 signals the market believes the worst of the tariff uncertainty is behind us.
Fed outlook: - Next FOMC: May 6-7, 2026 - Current rate: 4.25-4.50% - Market pricing: 2-3 cuts by year-end (first cut likely June or July) - Key data next week: CPI (Tuesday), PPI (Wednesday), Retail Sales (Thursday) - Fed speakers: Waller (Monday), Barkin (Tuesday), Powell (Wednesday — important!)
Geopolitics: - Iran tensions remain elevated — Bahnsen’s Friday Cafe focused on this - Tariff situation stabilizing but not resolved - Oil volatility likely to continue
Earnings coming up (next 2 weeks): - JPM, WFC, C, GS, MS — bank earnings start next week - NFLX — April 17 - TSLA — April 22 - GOOGL, MSFT, META — late April
Notable moves: - INTC +22.8% this week — restructuring/AI chip optimism - SMCI +6.9% — recovering from accounting concerns - PLTR -13.4% — profit-taking after massive run - NET -21.2% — worst performer, growth concerns
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Sat Apr 11 | GB Family Beach Day/BBQ (10:30 AM) |
| Mon Apr 13 | Fed’s Waller speaks |
| Tue Apr 14 | CPI data release |
| Wed Apr 15 | PPI data + Fed Chair Powell speaks |
| Wed Apr 16 | AT&T payment due + 7-2-8 Call with Brad Stegall (7 PM) |
| Thu Apr 17 | Retail Sales + NFLX earnings |
Generated April 10, 2026 at 4:38 PM ET by OpenClaw Data: Yahoo Finance (closing prices), Gmail (newsletters), Google Calendar 391 portfolio tickers tracked across 7 portfolios